Should I Stay or Should I Go? The Unspoken Questions Californians Are Finally Asking

Quick Take: Californians aren’t just chasing cheaper gas or lower taxes - they’re questioning the tradeoffs of staying in a state that feels harder to afford each year. With 175,000 people leaving LA County, rates freezing mobility, and equity trapped in low-interest loans, the quiet question echoing across dinner tables is simple: should I stay, or should I go? In this post, we’ll unpack the data behind the exodus, the realities of timing a move, and the creative paths for those who want to stay without feeling stuck.

Table Of Contents

• Are Californians Already in a Recession?
• Why Are So Many High-Earners Leaving?
• What’s Happening in LA’s Real Estate Market?
• Is Now the Best Time to Leave - or the Worst?
• What Are the Real Alternatives to Staying?
• What If I Want to Stay - but I’m Stuck Financially?
• Who’s Staying - and Why?
• FAQs
• Final Thoughts
• Ready to Plot Your Board?

No one wants to say it out loud.

But here it is: with the cost of living at an all-time high, interest rates locking people in place, and over 175,000 people leaving LA County last year alone, the question many are quietly asking - sometimes only to themselves - is:

Should I stay in California, or start planning an exit?

Let’s address the elephant in the room. Yes, I’m a real estate agent. My income depends on transactions.

But here’s the truth: I’d rather lose a deal than give someone advice that doesn’t serve them.

If you’re not in a position to buy, I’ll say it. If now’s not the right time to sell, I’ll tell you. Because I’m not here to sell sunshine when there’s a storm outside.

This article isn’t about hype. It’s about clarity - the kind of grounded, honest insight that helps you make a decision that aligns with your life, not someone else’s commission.

So let’s get into what no one else wants to say - but what everyone needs to hear.

Are Californians Already in a Recession?

Yes - and no.

Technically, California’s economy isn’t in a formal recession. But for many households, it feels like one.

While GDP numbers stay positive on paper, everyday life tells a different story:

• Over 175,000 people left LA County in the last year

• Commercial vacancies in LA hit 24%, the highest in decades

• Entertainment alone lost over 40,000 jobs

• Real wages remain flat while costs climb

• Small business closures continue quietly accelerating

If it looks like a downturn, feels like a downturn, and limits your options like one - what do you call it?

For many Californians, this is a silent recession.

Why Are So Many High-Earners Leaving?

It’s not just about politics or taxes. It’s about math - and fatigue.

High-income earners are doing the numbers, and they don’t add up anymore:

• Tax burden: California’s top income tax is 13.3%; states like Texas and Florida have none

• Cost of living: Groceries, gas, and goods cost more here than almost anywhere else

• Housing: Even at $500K a year, owning a desirable home still feels like a stretch

• Safety & stability: Wildfires, insurance hikes, and public safety concerns are pushing people out

They’re not running from California - they’re running toward freedom.

What’s Happening in LA’s Real Estate Market?

• Inventory is low - but so is buyer urgency

• Mortgage rates are high, locking sellers into “golden handcuff” loans under 4%

• Buyers are cautious, waiting for deals

• Commercial vacancies reveal a structural shift in how people live and work

Translation: people aren’t staying because they love their homes. They’re staying because leaving doesn’t yet make financial sense.

Is Now the Best Time to Leave - or the Worst?

Here’s the unpopular truth:

If you’re asking whether you should leave, you’re already halfway out.

So let’s talk timing.

• Home prices in LA have plateaued, dipping 3–5% in some zip codes

• Demand in states like Georgia, Texas, and Tennessee is growing - but affordability still favors movers

• Interest rates aren’t returning to 3% anytime soon

Is moving risky? Yes. But waiting too long could cost more than leaving at the right moment.

If you’re even considering a move, your next steps should be strategic, not emotional.

What Are the Real Alternatives to Staying?

If you’re thinking long-term, these are the destinations most Californians are eyeing:

• Texas: No income tax, strong economy, thriving metros like Austin, Dallas, Houston

• Florida: Tax-friendly, warm, growing economy, retiree incentives

• Nevada: Close to California, no state income tax, rising markets in Reno and Vegas

• Carolinas & Georgia: Lower costs, expanding tech and finance sectors, family-friendly pace

Your best move depends on more than cost of living. Ask yourself: where are your adult children? Your network? Your sense of belonging?

Start with your values - then find the geography that fits them.

What If I Want to Stay - but I’m Stuck Financially?

You’re not alone.

Thousands of homeowners feel trapped by their 2.5% mortgage rate. But there are creative ways forward:

1. Subject-to Deals
   Let a buyer assume your mortgage - rate and all - without paying it off. You sell at your number, the buyer gets a great rate, and you free up capital. Win-win.

2. Seller Carryback / Lease Option
   If you’ve built equity, act as the lender. The buyer pays in installments or through rent-to-own. You earn passive income while widening your buyer pool.

3. HELOC + Downsize
   Tap your equity, rent out your home, and buy smaller elsewhere. You keep your low rate and generate new income.

Or use our 3P Promise™ (Price, Presentation, Popularity) to sell for more. We’ve helped clients net up to 35% above neighbors while handling every detail of relocation.

Sometimes, the smartest move isn’t to wait - it’s to sell strategically and reinvest where your money grows faster.

Who’s Staying - and Why?

Not everyone’s leaving.

Many are doubling down and reshaping how they live:

• Building ADUs for family or rental income

• Renovating instead of relocating

• Creating multi-generational households

• Strengthening neighborhood ties post-pandemic

For these homeowners, staying isn’t giving up - it’s recalibrating. It’s about designing a lifestyle that delivers control, not chaos.

If staying gives you peace, it’s the right choice. But plan it intentionally.

FAQs

• Is California really in a recession, or is it just media hype?

  Economically, California hasn’t hit a full recession. But for many households, it feels like one - flat wages, rising costs, and stalled mobility all point to a local slowdown.

• If I sell, where should I go?

  That depends on your goals. Some move closer to family or lower-cost states; others keep their LA property as a rental while buying elsewhere. The right answer starts with your timeline, finances, and lifestyle priorities.

• I want to move but can’t give up my 2.5% mortgage rate - what now?

  You don’t have to. Options like subject-to deals, lease options, or renting while downsizing can help you preserve your leverage and still move forward.

• Is it too early to talk to an agent if I’m not ready to sell yet?

  The best outcomes come from early planning. A no-pressure consultation now gives you time to explore every scenario and avoid rushed decisions later.

• How do I even start this conversation?

  Quietly. Privately. With someone who listens more than they talk. That’s where real strategy starts.

Final Thoughts

Not every decision needs to end in a sale.

If you’re thinking things through, start with clarity. Get real data, understand your equity position, and explore options before making a move.

The question isn’t just should you stay or go? - it’s what’s the smartest version of either choice for you?

Ready to plot your board?

Book a 20-minute strategy call . We’ll map your current squares, identify untapped equity, and design a cash-flow plan that fits your timeline - no pressure, just clarity..